Promoting Sustainable and Inclusive Prosperity in Namibia

The Growth Lab has been working with the Government of Namibia since 2020 on a project to disentangle the factors that inform Namibia’s economic prospects. The research outputs of this initiative may in turn contribute to the policymaking process in the country and inform policymakers abroad facing similar issues.

Aerial photo of Swakopmund, NamibiaThe project covers a wide range of research activities, including but not limited to: understanding the drivers of macroeconomic sustainability, diagnosing the constraints to growth and identifying the most binding structural barriers preventing Namibia from realizing sustainable growth and diversification opportunities, studying inequality and labor market dynamics across the country, and analyzing the economic and export diversification opportunities by applying the framework of complexity analysis.

A generation into independence, Namibia displays significant progress towards long-term development. The country has made strides in overcoming a legacy of exclusion, biases in the development of state capabilities and access to public goods. Namibia has also established public institutions that increased civic engagement and participation; and achieved significant socio-political stability.

More About this Project

Namibia registered positive economic growth every year since its Independence in 1990, with the sole exception of 1993. In terms of GDP per capita, the first decade (1990-2000) recorded a moderately positive rate of growth (1.4% CAGR), but between 2000-2015, Namibia embarked upon a rapid growth acceleration, outperforming its African peers with an average annualized rate of growth per capita of 3.1%. During these fifteen years, poverty rates halved, and Namibia closed its income gap with South Africa by 45%, going from an income gap of 36% in 2000 to 20% in 2015. Household consumption per capita echoed the growth acceleration and expanded at a similar pace as GDP per capita. The growth acceleration was driven by the global commodity super cycle – which translated into favorable terms of trade, an investment boom in the mining industry, and exports coming from that sector.

However, by 2015, many of the factors behind the acceleration started to wane. The external shock of falling commodity prices, compounded with a plummeting of investment and a push for fiscal consolidation, leading to an overall contraction– Namibia contracted by 2.1% on average between 2015-2019.

By this point, at the beginning of 2020, Namibia was facing three concurrent structural challenges: reigniting economic growth, achieving a path towards fiscal sustainability, and effectively promoting pathways to opportunity for all its citizens. Onto this stage came the global pandemic of COVID-19, which only amplified these challenges and exposed the vulnerabilities in the economy.

The collaboration between the Growth Lab and the Government of Namibia aims to provide research-based inputs and active policy support that can inform policy approaches to address these structural challenges in an holistic fashion, in the global context of the post COVD-19 economic trends.

PROJECT DATES

May 2020 - May 2023

FUNDED BY

Government of Namibia

Tools & Visual Stories

Animated image displaying different visualizations from the supporting storyHarboring Opportunity: The Industrial Ecosystems of Port Cities

While we often think about ports as gateways for transporting goods and materials across cities, countries, and continents, it is also relevant to ask: how do ports play a role in shaping their local economies? In this visual story, we explore how port cities can capitalize on their productive strengths to develop other industries.

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Animated image displaying different visualizations from the supporting storyPort Resiliency in the Face of Global Shocks: The Case of Walvis Bay in Namibia

The Port of Walvis Bay in Namibia depends in part on its connectedness to inland markets and is, therefore, vulnerable to shocks affecting those markets. In this visual story, we show how the port can improve its economic resilience by capitalizing on global developments in clean energy technologies and the closeness to mining operations in the region.

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Namibia Industry Targeting Dashboard Namibia's Industry Targeting Dashboard

This custom-made industry targeting tool allows users to explore the viability and benefit of any product or industry in comparison with Namibia’s current productive capabilities and comparative advantages. The tool is designed for use by government and non-government entities that seek to attract foreign direct investment (FDI) to Namibia to accelerate economic development.

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Blue globe with Namibia highlighted in darker blueAtlas of Economic Complexity Country Profile

Namibia⁩ is ⁨an upper-middle-income⁩ country, ranking as the ⁨⁨81st⁩ richest economy⁩ per capita out of 133 studied. It  ranks as the ⁨⁨92nd⁩ most⁩ complex country in the Economic Complexity Index (ECI) ranking. Compared to a decade prior, ⁨Namibia's⁩ ⁨economy has become more complex, ⁩⁨improving ⁩⁨⁨7⁩ positions in the ECI ranking⁩. Moving forward, ⁨Namibia⁩ is positioned to take advantage of ⁨few⁩ opportunities to diversify its production using its existing knowhow.

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Development Talks / Seminars

The end of the commodity super-cycle slowed growth in Namibia and the fiscal situation worsened with COVID-19. In this Development Talks seminar, Ipumbu Shiimi, Namibia's Minister of Finance, discusses the growth challenges facing the country, including high poverty rates, inequality, and unemployment.
In this Development Talks seminar, Nangula Uaandja, CEO of the newly established Namibia Investment Promotion and Development Board, shares insights from her professional and personal journey, as well as the broader impact that the NIPDB is having in the country.
In this seminar, James Mnyupe, Economic Advisor to Namibia's President, discusses the country's commitment to green hydrogen, its strategy for securing foreign investment, from the private sector and Germany and the EU, the feasibility of the hydrogen market, and the risks.
  

Spotlight

Diagnosing Economic Woes and Helping Develop Cures

Our work in Namibia was highlighted in this Harvard Kennedy School Magazine feature story about the origins of the Growth Lab and our approach to economic growth. A photographer accompanied our researchers during a trip to Windhoek and the Omahenene region in northern Namibia as they met with senior government officials, smallholder farmers, and manufacturers.

Photo: Research Fellows Nikita Taniparti and Andres Fortunato meet with merchants at open-air market in Namibia.

Growth Lab researchers meet with Namibian locals in a marketplace

TEAM MEMBERS

Head shot of Ricardo Hausmann

Ricardo Hausmann

Director
Rafik Hariri Professor of the Practice of International Political Economy, HKS
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