Journal Articles

Shen, J.H., Wang, H. & Lin, S.C.-C., 2021. Productivity Gap and Inward FDI Spillovers: Theory and Evidence from China. China & World Economy , 29 (2) , pp. 24–48. Publisher's VersionAbstract
This paper constructs a two-stage sequential game model to shed light on the spillover effect of inward FDI on the efficiency of domestic firms in host countries. Our model shows that, given an optimal joint-venture policy made by foreign firms, the impact of the spillover effect of inward FDI is contingent upon the productivity gap between the domestic firms and foreign ones. In particular, we demonstrate that the spillover effect of inward FDI varies negatively with the productivity gap between domestic low-productivity firms and foreign firms but works in the opposite way for high-productivity firms. This suggests that once the productivity gap widens, the entry of foreign firms will increase the efficiency of high-productivity firms but reduce the efficiency of low-productivity firms. In support of our theoretical model, we provide robust empirical results by using the dataset of annual survey of Chinese industrial enterprises.
Toward an empirical investigation of the long-term debt and financing deficit nexus: evidence from Chinese-listed firms
Jiang, X., Shen, J.H. & Lee, C.-C., 2021. Toward an empirical investigation of the long-term debt and financing deficit nexus: evidence from Chinese-listed firms. Applied Economics. Publisher's VersionAbstract
As the literature has studied the financing method of Chinese-listed firms for a long time, but with inconclusive indications, this research thus adopts non-financial Chinese-listed firms’ data from 2003 to 2015 to investigate the relationship between long-term debt financing and financing deficit. We pay particular attention to three channels (ownership concentration, market timing, and state ownership) that potentially affect the adoption of long-term debt financing when there is a financing deficit. The empirical analysis documents a positive relationship between financing deficit and changes in the long-term debt ratio in our sampled firms for both static and dynamic panel models. Moreover, among the three channels we show that state ownership has the strongest positive impact on the adoption of long-term debt financing, followed by ownership concentration, while the weakest channel is the market timing’s negative effect. In general, our empirical analysis finds that the important external financing method of long-term debt is most likely to be impacted by the state ownership aspect.
O'Clery, N., Yildirim, M.A. & Hausmann, R., 2021. Productive Ecosystems and the arrow of development. Nature Communications , 12. Publisher's VersionAbstract

Economic growth is associated with the diversification of economic activities, which can be observed via the evolution of product export baskets. Exporting a new product is dependent on having, and acquiring, a specific set of capabilities, making the diversification process path-dependent. Taking an agnostic view on the identity of the capabilities, here we derive a probabilistic model for the directed dynamical process of capability accumulation and product diversification of countries. Using international trade data, we identify the set of pre-existing products, the product Ecosystem, that enables a product to be exported competitively. We construct a directed network of products, the Eco Space, where the edge weight corresponds to capability overlap. We uncover a modular structure, and show that low- and middle-income countries move from product communities dominated by small Ecosystem products to advanced (large Ecosystem) product clusters over time. Finally, we show that our network model is predictive of product appearances.

Listen to the authors discuss their findings in this Growth Lab Podcast.

Implied Comparative Advantage
Hausmann, R., Stock, D.P. & Yildirim, M.A., 2021. Implied Comparative Advantage. Research Policy . Publisher's VersionAbstract
The comparative advantage of a location shapes its industrial structure. Current theoretical models based on this principle do not take a stance on how comparative advantages in different industries or locations are related with each other, or what such patterns of relatedness might imply about the evolution of comparative advantage. We build a simple Ricardian-inspired model and show that hidden information on inter-industry and inter-location relatedness can be captured by simple correlations between the observed structure of industries across locations, or the structure of locations across industries. We then use this recovered information to calculate a measure of implied comparative advantage, and show that it explains much of the location’s current industrial structure. We give evidence that these patterns are present in a wide variety of contexts, namely the export of goods (internationally) and the employment, payroll and number of establishments across the industries of subnational regions (in the US, Chile and India). In each of these cases, the deviations between the observed and implied comparative advantage in the past tend to be highly predictive of future industry growth, especially at horizons of a decade or more; this explanatory power holds at both the intensive as well as the extensive margin. These results suggest that a component of the long-term evolution of comparative advantage is already implied in today’s patterns of production.
Production Ability and Economic Growth
Bustos, S. & Yildirim, M., 2020. Production Ability and Economic Growth. Research Policy . Publisher's VersionAbstract
Cities and countries undergo constant structural transformation. Industries need many inputs, such as regulations, infrastructure or productive knowledge, which we call capabilities. And locations are successful in hosting industries insofar as the capabilities that they can provide. We propose a capabilities-based production model and an empirical strategy to measure the Sophistication of a product and the Production Ability of a location. We apply our framework to international trade data and employment data in the United States, recovering measures of Production Ability for countries and cities, and the Sophistication of products and industries. We show that both country- and city-level measures have a strong correlation with income and economic growth at different time horizons. Product Sophistication is positively correlated with indicators of human capital and wages. Our model-based estimations predict product appearances and disappearances through the extensive margin.
Bahar, D., Hausmann, R. & Hidalgo, C., 2014. Neighbors and the evolution of the comparative advantage of nations: Evidence of international knowledge diffusion?. Journal of International Economics , 92 (1). Publisher's VersionAbstract
The literature on knowledge diffusion shows that knowledge decays strongly with distance. In this paper we document that the probability that a product is added to a country's export basket is, on average, 65% larger if a neighboring country is a successful exporter of that same product. For existing products, growth of exports in a country is 1.5% higher per annum if it has a neighbor with comparative advantage in these products. While these results could be driven by a common third factor that escapes our controls, they align with our expectations of the localized character of knowledge diffusion.
Place-specific determinants of income gaps: New sub-national evidence from Mexico
Hausmann, R., Pietrobelli, C. & Santos, M.A., 2021. Place-specific determinants of income gaps: New sub-national evidence from Mexico. Journal of Business Research. Publisher's VersionAbstract
The literature on wage gaps between Chiapas and the rest of Mexico revolves around individual factors, such as education and ethnicity. Yet, twenty years after the Zapatista rebellion, the schooling gap has shrunk while the wage gap has widened, and we find no evidence indicating that Chiapas indigenes are worse-off than their likes elsewhere in Mexico. We explore a different hypothesis and argue that place-specific characteristics condition the choices and behaviors of individuals living in Chiapas and explain persisting income gaps. Most importantly, they limit the necessary investments at the firm level in dynamic capabilities. Based on census data, we calculate the economic complexity index, a measure of the knowledge agglomeration embedded in the economic activities at the municipal level. Economic complexity explains a larger fraction of the wage gap than any individual factor. Our results suggest that the problem is Chiapas, and not Chiapanecos.
Macroeconomic Rationales for Public Investments in Science
Gersbach, H., Schetter, U. & Schneider, M.T., 2020. Macroeconomic Rationales for Public Investments in Science. Economic Inquiry , 59. Publisher's VersionAbstract
What is the economic rationale for investing in science? Based on an open economy model of creative destruction, we characterize four key factors of optimal investment in basic research: the stage of economic development, the strength of the manufacturing base, the degree of openness, and the share of foreign‐owned firms. For each of these factors, we analyze its bearings on optimal basic research investment. We then show that the predicted effects are consistent with patterns observed in the data and discuss how the factor‐based approach might inform basic research policies.
Economic Development and the Accumulation of Know-how
Hausmann, R., 2016. Economic Development and the Accumulation of Know-how. Welsh Economic Review , 24 , pp. 13-16. Publisher's VersionAbstract
Economic development depends on the accumulation of know-how. The theory of economic growth has long emphasised the importance of something called technical progress, but what that is, and how it grows has not been well elucidated. Technical progress is really based on three separate aspects: tools, or embodied knowledge, recipes or blueprints or codified knowledge and know-how or tacit knowledge. While tools can be shipped and codes can be e-mailed, know-how exists only as a particular wiring of the brain and as such it is hard to move around. That is why the growth of know-how can easily become the binding constraint on the development process.
Shen, J.H., 2020. Supply-Side Structural Reform and Dynamic Capital Structure Adjustment: Evidence from Chinese-Listed Firms. Pacific-Basin Finance Journal , 65. Publisher's VersionAbstract

The literature extensively discusses the increasing commitment toward comprehensive structural reform of China’s economy as it targets to achieve high quality and sustainable economic growth. This research investigates the inherent relationship between supply-side structural reform (SSSR) and dynamic capital structure adjustment in Chinese-listed firms. Our results show that SSSR’s introduction has significantly improved the adjustment speed toward the optimal debt ratio, especially for firms with high indebtedness and low investment performance. Importantly, China’s bond market plays a crucial role through SSSR for firms’ debt ratio to adjust toward their optimal level. However, there is no such evidence among state-owned enterprises (SOEs), suggesting that the structural reform concerning corporate capital structure for SOEs is more challenging and longstanding when compared with non-SOEs.

Shen, J.H., 2020. Towards a Dynamic Model of the Industrial Upgrading with Global Value Chains. The World Economy. Publisher's VersionAbstract

This research constructs a simple dynamic model to illustrate the micro‐mechanism of industrial upgrading along the global value chains. Our model predicts that as firms move up from downstream to upstream stages, (a) there is higher profitability if and only if the following three conditions are satisfied. First, the increasing rate of sunk cost (including R&D expenditure) over sequential stages of production cannot be sufficiently large (endogenous sunk cost effect). Second, the decreasing rate of change of intermediate input demand with respect to the price set by firms at a production stage cannot be sufficiently high (intermediate input price effect). Third, the decreasing rate of change of intermediate input demand with respect to the pricing dynamics over the sequential stages of production cannot be sufficiently large (sequential pricing uncertainty effect); (b) total cost is lower if and only if the decreasing rate of change of input demand with respect to the price is sufficiently large; (c) output is higher if and only if and the decreasing rate of change of input demand with respect to the price is not sufficiently large; and (d) the price decreases. We show that the empirical patterns revealed in China are consistent with our model's predictions.

Coscia, M., et al., 2020. The Node Vector Distance Problem in Complex Networks. ACM Computing Surveys , 53 (6). Publisher's VersionAbstract

We describe a problem in complex networks we call the Node Vector Distance (NVD) problem, and we survey algorithms currently able to address it. Complex networks are a useful tool to map a non-trivial set of relationships among connected entities, or nodes. An agent—e.g., a disease—can occupy multiple nodes at the same time and can spread through the edges. The node vector distance problem is to estimate the distance traveled by the agent between two moments in time. This is closely related to the Optimal Transportation Problem (OTP), which has received attention in fields such as computer vision. OTP solutions can be used to solve the node vector distance problem, but they are not the only valid approaches. Here, we examine four classes of solutions, showing their differences and similarities both on synthetic networks and real world network data. The NVD problem has a much wider applicability than computer vision, being related to problems in economics, epidemiology, viral marketing, and sociology, to cite a few. We show how solutions to the NVD problem have a wide range of applications, and we provide a roadmap to general and computationally tractable solutions. We have implemented all methods presented in this article in a publicly available open source library, which can be used for result replication.

Zhao, D., Chen, Y. & Shen, J.H., 2020. Mortgage Payments and Household Consumption in Urban China. Economic Modelling , 93 , pp. 100-111. Publisher's VersionAbstract

By exploiting variation both in mortgage payoffs and mortgage interest rate resets, we find that a decline in mortgage payments induces a significant increase in nondurable goods spending, even when households have substantial amounts of liquidity. Following mortgage payoff, households increase consumption expenditures by 61% of the original payment. In comparison, households increase consumption by only 36% in response to a transitory payment adjustment induced by interest rate changes. Households with a higher payment-to-income ratio have a significantly lower marginal propensity to consume (MPC). These results have practical implications for policy markers seeking to design consumption boosting policies and are important for understanding how changes in monetary policy may affect consumer spending patterns.

Knowledge Diffusion in the Network of International Business Travel
Coscia, M., Neffke, F. & Hausmann, R., 2020. Knowledge Diffusion in the Network of International Business Travel. Nature Human Behaviour , 4 (10). Publisher's VersionAbstract

We use aggregated and anonymized information based on international expenditures through corporate payment cards to map the network of global business travel. We combine this network with information on the industrial composition and export baskets of national economies. The business travel network helps to predict which economic activities will grow in a country, which new activities will develop and which old activities will be abandoned. In statistical terms, business travel has the most substantial impact among a range of bilateral relationships between countries, such as trade, foreign direct investments and migration. Moreover, our analysis suggests that this impact is causal: business travel from countries specializing in a specific industry causes growth in that economic activity in the destination country. Our interpretation of this is that business travel helps to diffuse knowledge, and we use our estimates to assess which countries contribute or benefit the most from the diffusion of knowledge through global business travel.

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