NEWS/OPINION

New Growth Projections Predict the Continued,  Uneven Slowdown of Latin America

New Growth Projections Predict the Continued, Uneven Slowdown of Latin America

May 7, 2015

– After a decade lagging behind South America in economic growth, Mexico and Central America are now poised to lead the region, according to new projections presented by researchers at the Center for International Development at Harvard University (CID). At the opposite end, the more commodity-driven economies of South America, especially Venezuela, Chile, and Ecuador, hold the lowest growth potential. Using their own measures of economic complexity, CID researchers show that the diversity and sophistication of the products a...

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Secular Stagnation for Free

March 27, 2015

Ricardo Hausmann for Project Syndicate

CAMBRIDGE – Something is definitely rotten in the state of capitalism. Despite unprecedentedly low interest rates, investment in most advanced countries is significantly below where it was in the years prior to the 2008 crisis, while employment rates remain stubbornly low. And even investment in the pre-crisis period was unimpressive, given low prevailing interest rates.

For...

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World economy poised for oil price upswing, say Davos economists

January 20, 2015

Ricardo Hausmann in the Financial Times

The world economy will receive a significant boost from lower oil prices this year despite fears of deflation and persistently weak spending, leading economists attending the World Economic Forum told the Financial Times.

Ahead of the gathering at the Swiss resort of Davos, which begins on Wednesday, most economists had a more optimistic outlook than the International Monetary Fund, although they recognised...

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Should Venezuela Default?

Should Venezuela Default?

September 5, 2014

Ricardo Hausmann for Project Syndicate

CAMBRIDGE – Will Venezuela default on its foreign bonds? Markets fear that it might. That is why Venezuelan bonds pay over 11 percentage points more than US Treasuries, which is 12 times more than Mexico, four times more than Nigeria, and double what Bolivia pays. Last May, when Venezuela made a $5 billion private placement of ten-year bonds with a 6% coupon, it effectively had to give a 40% discount, leaving it with barely $3 billion. The extra $2 billion that it will have to pay in ten years is the compensation that investors demand for the likelihood of default, in excess of the already hefty coupon.... Read more about Should Venezuela Default?

Reducing Colombia’s large regional gaps

Reducing Colombia’s large regional gaps

August 22, 2014

Eduardo Lora

Colombia is currently one of the most dynamic economies in Latin America. In the first quarter of this year, growth was an impressive 6.4%, and for the full year will reach at least 5%. Abundant oil and mining revenues have been the main driver of the expansion. With a strong fiscal position and a monetary policy that enjoys credibility, the country has avoided squandering this boon. But it still has much...

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Ukraine’s real problem, in four graphs

Ukraine’s real problem, in four graphs

June 8, 2014

Marcela Escobari for the Boston Globe

WHICH WAY will Ukraine turn? With Russia’s recent military aggression taking so much of the spotlight, it’s easy to forget that Ukraine’s political unrest this year began with domestic protests over a question key to the future of its 45 million people: whether to tie their fortunes more closely to Russia, or to Western Europe.

As a former Soviet republic with many Russian speakers,...

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