Inclusive Growth

España, L.P., Morales, J.R. & Barrios, D., 2016. Poverty, coverage of the Missions and social protection needs for the economic reform of Venezuela.Abstract

Even before the oil price crisis began in 2014, progress in reducing poverty in Venezuela had ceased and official figures showed that. According to the INE, between 2008 and 2013, the percentage of the population living in poverty remained almost the same, going from 33.1% to 34.2%.

Estas son las últimas cifras oficiales de pobreza de ingreso que disponemos ya que la última contabilización oficial de porcentaje de población en situación de pobreza es la del segundo semestre de 2013[1]. A partir de ese momento la descripción social de la pobreza en Venezuela ha dependido de estudios independientes realizados entre otros, por un consorcio de varias universidades del país[2] que dan cuenta de la evolución de la pobreza entre 2014 y 2015 (ENCOVI, 2014 y 2015), años donde se precipitaron los precios del petróleo hasta un tercio de lo que llegaron a ser durante 2008 acelerando un proceso de deterioro en los indicadores de desempeño económico y bienestar del hogar.

Según estas fuentes independientes de información la pobreza de ingresos en Venezuela habría llegado hasta un 55% en 2014 y 76% en 2015. Cifras que por sí solas hablan de la necesidad diseñar un plan de reformas económicas y sociales para hacerle frente al impacto social de la caída de los precios del petróleo, así como al conjunto de factores, más allá de los precios del crudo, que han llevado al país a tres años continuos de recesión y aumento de la pobreza.

En atención a lo anterior, el presente trabajo se enmarca dentro del conjunto de ejercicios de investigación que son necesarios para poder diseñar un programa de estabilización económica y su correspondiente plan de protección social. En ese sentido, en lo que sigue trataremos de dimensionar el número de familias que necesitarían formar parte de este potencial plan de protección social.

Para ello nos valdremos como fuente de información de la ENCOVI 2014 y 2015, encuestas desde las cuales no sólo tenemos información para contabilizar los hogares e individuos en estado de necesidad, sino además las coberturas probables de los programas sociales (Misiones) que actualmente implementa el gobierno de Venezuela, para de esta forma estimar; en primer lugar, las familias en situación de pobreza que reciben beneficios sociales; en segundo lugar las que estando en esa condición de pobreza no los reciben y; por último, y con miras a la reforma de los programas y la introducción de elementos de progresividad distributiva, los beneficiarios que aún sin ser población objetivo, por no estar en situación de pobreza, son receptores de transferencias, pensiones o becas por parte del Estado.

Adicionalmente a lo anterior, las políticas de control de cambio y la regulación de los precios, aunado a los problemas de abastecimiento, han hecho que los precios de los bienes a los que tienen acceso los distintos grupos sociales varían según si se adquieren en los mercados controlados o en los informales. Estos diferenciales de precios son muy importantes y están generando impactos distributivos difíciles de estimar, pero fundamentales para entender las necesidades de protección social que requieren los hogares para cubrir la canasta de productos básicos.

Es por ello que este trabajo también se propone describir a muy alto nivel los problemas distributivos generados por los diferenciales de precios. Si bien probablemente no sea posible llegar a conclusiones definitivas, al menos plantearemos lo relevante del tema para entender como la escasez de productos y las regulaciones de precios han introducido un conjunto de distorsiones en los precios y en el acceso a los bienes esenciales y presentaremos algunos de los dilemas y preguntas que estas distorsiones generan al momento de analizar la capacidad de satisfacer necesidades básicas en Venezuela.

[1] En Agosto de 2016, el Instituto Nacional de Estadística (INE) publicó estadísticas sobre el porcentaje de hogares en situación de pobreza por primera vez desde el año 2013. La serie fue actualizada para incluir los datos de 2014 y el primer semestre de 2015. Para el primer semestre de 2014 la cifra de hogares en situación de pobreza por ingreso alcanzó 29,5%, para el segundo semestre de ese año llegó a 32,6% y finalmente para el primer semestre de 2015 33,1% de los hogares se encontraban en situación de pobreza por ingresos. Sin embargo, el INE no ha hecho públicas ni el valor de Canasta Alimentaria Normativa para 2015, ni las Encuestas de Hogares que sustentan este cálculo ni las cifras de pobreza por ingreso como porcentaje de la población.

[2] We refer to the National Survey of Living Conditions (ENCOVI) conducted in 2014 and 2015 by the Andrés Bello Catholic University, the Simón Bolívar University and the Central de Venezuela. The results and report of the 2014 survey can be seen in: Zuñiga, Genny and González, Marino. A look at the social situation of the Venezuelan population. National Survey of Living Conditions. 2014 . IIES-UCAB. Caracas. 2015, The report of the 2015 survey is being prepared but the database is available at the Institute of Economic and Social Research of the UCAB.

These are the brutal emergency measures it would take to pull Venezuela back from total collapse right now

July 6, 2016

Growth Lab research - Quartz

Venezuela, the world’s most oil-rich nation, is currently also the world’s biggest economic basket case.

Coca-Cola has stopped Coke production because there is no sugar. International airlines—including Aeromexico last month (paywall)—are halting flights to and from Caracas because currency controls make it nearly impossible to ship profits back home. Venezuelans are looting supermarkets to feed themselves.... Read more about These are the brutal emergency measures it would take to pull Venezuela back from total collapse right now

Research Report Sheds New Light on Economic Impacts of Tourism in Colombia

June 20, 2016

Bogota – Against the backdrop of the World Economic Forum (WEF) meeting in Medellin, MasterCard released a new analysis of foreign tourist spending in Colombia based on research conducted in collaboration with the Center for International Development (CID) at Harvard University. The analysis reveals rare insights on the economic benefits of tourism, and the role of payment acceptance in driving more inclusive growth.... Read more about Research Report Sheds New Light on Economic Impacts of Tourism in Colombia

Hausmann, R., et al., 2016. Towards a Prosperous and Productive Chiapas: Institutions, Policies and Public-Private Dialogue to Promote Inclusive Growth.Abstract

Since the Zapatista revolution of January 1994, Chiapas has received an enormous amount of resources from the federal government. The gaps in years of schooling between Chiapas and the rest of Mexico have been reduced, and numerous investments have been made that have improved road infrastructure, ports and airports. However, the gap that separates Chiapas from the rest of Mexico has been steadily widening. A multidisciplinary team of twelve experts has dedicated itself to studying different aspects of the productive, political and social dynamics of Chiapas. From there, five base documents have emerged: Institutional Diagnosis, Economic Complexity, Growth Diagnosis, Poverty Profile and a pilot of productive dialogue carried out in an indigenous community in Chiapas.

Our hypothesis is that Chiapas is in a low productivity trap. Modern production methods, closely linked to the growth and development process, require a set of complementary inputs that are absent in most of the territory of Chiapas. Thus, there are no incentives to acquire new knowledge that could be used in industries that do not exist. This inability to solve coordination problems and provide the inputs required by modern production has caused a good part of the social investment that has been poured into the entity to be wasted.

To overcome the current dilemma and ignite the spark of growth, Chiapas needs to solve its problems of coordination, connectivity, and gradually promote greater complexity. Our recommendations are based on taking advantage of the agglomerations of knowledge that already exist in the main urban centers of Chiapas, to address new productive sectors with greater added value and complexity. To overcome this challenge, it is necessary to create a public-private structure that iteratively solves the problems of coordination and provision of public goods that these high-potential sectors require. Public transport systems and housing policy are mechanisms to integrate the population surrounding urban centers to the new productive dynamics.

Planes flying over map

Uncovering New Insights For How Business ‘Know-How’ Impacts Economic Growth

January 20, 2016

MasterCard data helps reveal how ‘know-how’ moves around the world


Cambridge, MA
– A unique research collaboration between the Center for International Development (CID) at Harvard University and the MasterCard Center for Inclusive Growth is uncovering new insights on the dynamics of global business travel and its impact on economies. Through the first-ever...

Read more about Uncovering New Insights For How Business ‘Know-How’ Impacts Economic Growth
Shanghai skyline at night

What Should We Do About Inequality?

December 16, 2015

By Ricardo Hausmann (originally published in GrowthPolicy)

Inequality is the result of many different phenomena. Some of them should be a source of policy concern while others should not. My main problem is the inequality that arises from differences in productivity—namely, differences in productivity across regions, across cities, within cities and across social groups. We know that there are huge differences in income across countries of the world: the richest countries are 200 to 300 times richer than the poorest countries in per capita terms. That’s inequality at the global scale.... Read more about What Should We Do About Inequality?

What Should We Do About Inequality?

By Ricardo Hausmann (originally published in GrowthPolicy)

Inequality is the result of many different phenomena. Some of them should be a source of policy concern while others should not. My main problem is the inequality that arises from differences in productivity—namely, differences in productivity across regions, across cities, within cities and across social groups. We know that there are huge differences...

Read more about What Should We Do About Inequality?
Santos, M.A., et al., 2015. Pilot of Inclusive Growth in indigenous communities of Chiapas (Cruztón, Chamula).Abstract

The Growth Lab at Harvard's Center for International Development, the Los Grobo Foundation, and the School of Senior Management and Business Administration of Barcelona (EADA), with the support of the Ministry of Finance and Public Credit of the Government of Mexico, have partnered to conduct an exploration of the productive attitudes and skills of the indigenous communities of Chiapas. Given the high degree of dispersion of these communities, we have decided to select a pilot location, relatively close to urban areas, and implement the methodology of the Empower Communities program developed by the Los Grobo Foundation there.

Our final objective is to increase the understanding of the social, political, cultural and productive complexity of the indigenous communities of Chiapas, using as a vehicle a methodology that promotes participatory diagnosis, identifies capacities and resources, in the process of designing a collective development plan. territorial. Through the pilot implementation of Empower Communities, the team seeks to create a knowledge base that allows us to strengthen our capacity to design and implement development policies in indigenous communities with a productive aspect, as a complement to the social assistance policies that predominate in the place.

Pages