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2019
Stock, D. & Zuccolo, B., 2019. Research Note: "One Village One Product" Programs, Growth Lab at Harvard's Center for International Development.Abstract
The One Village, One Product (OVOP) movement started 40 years ago in a rural Japanese prefecture, with the aim of helping small villages and towns develop by focusing on their local culture and resources. Since then the principles of the OVOP movement have spread to other countries, including Thailand, Malawi, and beyond. The varying levels of success across these different versions of OVOP suggest some lessons on how to best organize rural development programs that could be useful as the Albanian government embarks on its flagship 100+ Villages project.
one_village_one_product_programs.pdf
Levy-Yeyati, E. & Gomez, J.-F., 2019. The Cost of Holding Foreign Exchange Reserves.Abstract
Recent studies that have emphasized the costs of accumulating reserves for self-insurance purposes have overlooked two potentially important side-effects. First, the impact of the resulting lower spreads on the service costs of the stock of sovereign debt, which could substantially reduce the marginal cost of holding reserves. Second, when reserve accumulation reflects countercyclical LAW central bank interventions, the actual cost of reserves should be measured as the sum of valuation effects due to exchange rate changes and the local-to-foreign currency exchange rate differential (the inverse of a carry trade profit and loss total return flow), which yields a cost that is typically smaller than the one arising from traditional estimates based on the sovereign credit risk spreads. We document those effects empirically to illustrate that the cost of holding reserves may have been considerably smaller than usually assumed in both the academic literature and the policy debate.
2019-05-cid-wp-353-holding-exchange-reserves.pdf
Levy-Yeyati, E., 2019. How ETFs Amplify the Global Financial Cycle in Emerging Markets.Abstract
Since the early 2000s exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have grown to become an important in- vestment vehicle worldwide. In this paper, we study how their growth affects the sensitivity of international capital flows to the global financial cycle. We combine comprehensive fund- level data on investor flows with a novel identification strategy that controls for unobservable time-varying economic conditions at the investment destination. For dedicated emerging mar- ket funds, we find that the sensitivity of investor flows to global financial conditions for equity (bond) ETFs is 2.5 (2.25) times higher than for equity (bond) mutual funds. In turn, we show that in countries where ETFs hold a larger share of financial assets, total cross-border equity flows and prices are significantly more sensitive to global financial conditions. We conclude that the growing role of ETFs as a channel for international capital flows amplifies the global financial cycle in emerging markets.
2019-05-cid-wp-351-etf-amplify.pdf
Lora, E., 2019. Empleo Femenino en las Ciudades Colombianas: Un Método de Descripción Estadística.Abstract

Este trabajo propone una metodología de descomposición estadística para describir en
forma coherente las dimensiones del empleo femenino según la estructura del mercado
laboral y según la estructura productiva de las ciudades. La metodología se utiliza
para analizar el empleo femenino “pleno y decente” en 23 ciudades colombianas entre
2008 y 2016. Según la estructura laboral, se encuentra que la brecha de género en el
empleo pleno y decente se debe a diferencias en la participación laboral y en la
formalidad del empleo, más que a diferencias entre hombres y mujeres en el desempleo
o en la dedicación al empleo. Según la estructura productiva, se encuentra que la
orientación por sexo y la composición del empleo sectorial de las ciudades tienen
influencia modesta en las diferencias entre ciudades en la generación de empleo
femenino pleno y decente, ya que éstas resultan sobre todo de las diferencias en la
capacidad de generación de para ambos sexos. La metodología también se usa para
analizar los cambios en el período. Se sugieren posibles extensiones de la metodología
propuesta e implicaciones para futuras investigaciones.
- - -

Female Employment in Colombian Cities: A Method of Statistical Description

This paper proposes a methodology of statistical decomposition to describe in a
coherent way the dimensions of female employment according to the structure of the
labor market and according to the productive structure of cities. The methodology is
used to analyze "full and decent" female employment in 23 Colombian cities between
2008 and 2016. According to the labor structure, it is found that the gender gap in full
and decent employment is due to differences in labor participation and in the
formality of employment, rather than differences between men and women in
unemployment or dedication to employment. According to the productive structure, it
is found that the orientation by sex and the composition of sectoral employment in
cities have a modest influence on the differences between cities in the generation of full
and decent female employment, since these are mainly the result of differences in
cities’ capacities to generate employment for both sexes. The methodology is also used
to analyze changes in the period. Potential extensions of the proposed methodology
and implications for future research are suggested.

2019-04-cid-fellows-wp-115-empleo-femenino-cuidades.pdf
Lora, E., 2019. Forecasting Formal Employment in Cities.Abstract
Can “full and productive employment for all” be achieved by 2030 as envisaged by the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals? This paper assesses the issue for the largest 62 Colombian cities using social security administrative records between 2008 and 2015, which show that the larger the city, the higher its formal occupation rate. This is explained by the fact that formal employment creation is restricted by the availability of the diverse skills needed in complex sectors. Since skill accumulation is a gradual path-dependent process, future formal employment by city can be forecasted using either ordinary least square regression results or machine learning algorithms. The results show that the share of working population in formal employment will increase between 13 and nearly 32 percent points between 2015 and 2030, which is substantial but still insufficient to achieve the goal. Results are broadly consistent across methods for the larger cities, but not the smaller ones. For these, the machine learning method provides nuanced forecasts which may help further explorations into the relation between complexity and formal employment at the city level.
2019-04-cid-fellows-wp-114-formal-employment.pdf
Fernandez-Arias, E., Hausmann, R. & Panizza, U., 2019. Smart Development Banks.Abstract
The conventional paradigm about development banks is that these institutions exist to target well-identified market failures. However, market failures are not directly observable and can only be ascertained with a suitable learning process. Hence, the question is how do the policymakers know what activities should be promoted, how do they learn about the obstacles to the creation of new activities? Rather than assuming that the government has arrived at the right list of market failures and uses development banks to close some well-identified market gaps, we suggest that development banks can be in charge of identifying these market failures through their loan-screening and lending activities to guide their operations and provide critical inputs for the design of productive development policies. In fact, they can also identify government failures that stand in the way of development and call for needed public inputs. This intelligence role of development banks is similar to the role that modern theories of financial intermediation assign to banks as institutions with a comparative advantage in producing and processing information. However, while private banks focus on information on private returns, development banks would potentially produce and organize information about social returns.
2019-04-cid-wp-350-smart-development-banks.pdf
Abante, K., 2019. Minimizing Smuggling and Restoring Public Trust in the Philippine Bureau of Customs.Abstract
This policy analysis attempts to answer three questions: First, what is the extent of smuggling and customs tax evasion in the Philippines? Second, how can customs improve its risk management system in the short term to minimize officers’ discretion and improve trade facilitation without abdicating its other mandates of revenue generation and border control? Third, what types of reforms and political commitment are necessary in the long term to restore public trust in the Bureau of Customs?
2019-03-cid-fellows-wp-113-philippine-customs.pdf
Stock, D., 2019. Exit and Foreign Ownership: Evidence from Export-Oriented Firms in Sri Lanka.Abstract
While foreign direct investment may play a transformative role in the development of economies, foreign-owned firms are also said to be more “footloose” than comparable local firms. This paper uses a semi-parametric approach to examine the link between firm ownership and exit rates, tracking a set of export-oriented firms operating in Sri Lanka in years between 1978 and 2017. We find that foreign firms are in fact 42-56% more likely to exit than local firms, but only for their first years of existence. In their later years, foreign firms are actually less likely to exit than local firms, though this late advantage is not statistically significant when conditioned on the firms’ initial characteristics (such as employment size). This pattern supports the theory that foreign firms face a steeper early learning curve in adapting to local conditions.
2019-03-cid-fellows-wp-112-sri-lanka-export-firms.pdf
Bustos, S. & Morales, J.R., 2019. Globalization and Protectionism: AMLO’s 2006 Presidential Run.Abstract
We study the effects of local tariff drops for Mexican exports to the US on the local electoral performance of Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO) in Mexico’s 2006 presidential election. In an effort to appeal to his rural base, AMLO proposed to unilaterally retain tariff exemptions on imported corn and beans, which were scheduled to drop under NAFTA by the end of 2008. This elevated protectionism in the public agenda during the campaign. We find that local economic gains due to export tariff drops under NAFTA between 1994 and 2001 led to a drop in AMLO’s local vote share gains in 2006. These effects are contingent to the 2006 election, as similar effects on local vote for the left are not found in previous or later elections. Results are robust to controls for local grain growing and Chinese competition. We predict that AMLO would have been elected in 2006 had protectionism not been a salient electoral issue. Our findings suggest export access gains due to globalization undermine local political preferences over national protectionist platforms.
2019-03-cid-fellows-wp-111-globalism-protectionism.pdf
Bustos, S. & Yıldırım, M.A., 2019. Production Ability and Economic Growth.Abstract
Production is shaped by capability requirements of products and availability of these capabilities across locations. We propose a capabilities based production model and an empirical strategy to measure product sophistication and location’s production ability. We apply our framework to international trade data, and employment data in the US, recovering measures of production ability for countries and cities, and sophistication of products and industries. We show that both country and city level measures have a strong correlation with income, and economic growth at different time horizons. Product sophistication is positively correlated with measures like education and training needed in the industry. Our model-based estimations also predict the diversification patterns through the extensive margin.
2019-03-cid-fellows-wp-110-production-growth.pdf
Gorrín, J., A., J.R.M. & Ricca, B., 2019. The Impact of the Mexican Drug War on Trade.Abstract
This paper studies the unintended economic consequences of increases in violence following the Mexican Drug War. We study the effects on exports in municipalities with different levels of exposure to violence after the policy. A focus on exports allows us to control for demand shocks by comparing exports of the same product to the same country of destination. Building on the close elections identification strategy proposed by Dell (2015), we show that municipalities that are exogenously exposed to the Drug War experience a 40% decrease in export growth on the in- tensive margin. Large exporters suffer larger effects, along with exports of more complex, capital intensive, and skill intensive products. Finally, using firm level data, we provide evidence consistent with violence increasing marginal exporting costs.
2019-02-cid-fellows-wp-109-mexican-drug-war.pdf
Hausmann, R., et al., 2019. Jordan: The Elements of a Growth Strategy.Abstract

In the decade 1999-2009, Jordan experienced an impressive growth acceleration, tripling its exports and increasing income per capita by 38%. Since then, a number of external shocks that include the Global Financial Crisis (2008-2009), the Arab Spring (2011), the Syrian Civil War (2011), and the emergence of the Islamic State (2014) have affected Jordan in significant ways and thrown its economy out of balance. Jordan’s debt-to-GDP ratio has ballooned from 55% (2009) to 94% (2018). The economy has continued to grow amidst massive fiscal adjustment and balance of payments constraints, but the large increase in population – by 50% between 2008 and 2017 – driven by massive waves of refugees has resulted in a 12% cumulative loss in income per capita (2010-2017). Moving forward, debt sustainability will require not only continued fiscal consolidation but also faster growth and international support to keep interest payments on the debt contained. We have developed an innovative framework to align Jordan’s growth strategy with its changing factor endowments. The framework incorporates service industries into an Economic Complexity analysis, utilizing the Dun and Bradstreet database, together with an evaluation of the evolution of Jordan’s comparative advantages over time. Combining several tools to identify critical constraints faced by sectors with the greatest potential, we have produced a roadmap with key elements of a strategy for Jordan to return to faster, more sustainable and more inclusive growth that is consistent with its emerging comparative advantages.

2019-02-28-cid-wp-346-jordan-growth-strategy-revised.pdf
2018
O'Brien, T., et al., 2018. Opportunity Analysis of Agriculture Products in Sri Lanka. Measuring markets and feasibility.Abstract

In August 2017, CID began focused work with Sri Lanka’s Ministry of Primary Industries (MPI), specifically with their Agriculture Sector Modernization Project(ASMP) team. MPI requested Harvard assistance in the analysis of constraints and opportunities in the agriculture and fisheries sector, specifically in non-plantation, export-oriented activities. As a first step, CID worked with MPI research officers to compare the more than twenty agricultural and fishery subsectors being considered under the ASMP. These subsectors were analyzed across over 53 quantitative and qualitative variables, measuring market demand, feasibility, current strength, and poverty considerations. The analysis ultimately identified spices (especially pepper), aquaculture (especially shrimp) and plantains and bananas as especially promising subsectors for future research and ASMP activities. More broadly, the analysis identified the basic market and feasibility considerations that can provide a starting point for value chain analyses and public-private strategic planning. This presentation was prepared jointly by MPI project officers and CID Growth Lab researchers in order to inform MPI initiatives, both within the ASMP and beyond.

agri_sector_opportunities_chart

agri_sector_opportunities_feb_2018.pdf
Sennett, J., 2018. Engaging Overseas Sri Lankans to Facilitate Export Diversification.Abstract

Insufficient export diversification is a binding constraint to economic growth in Sri Lanka

  • The Harvard CID growth diagnostic found that with wages in traditional export sectors now below average Sri Lankan wages, new higher-wage export industries are required

Overseas Sri Lankans (OSL) have the potential to create new export industries in Sri Lanka

  • Diasporas were involved in the export-led development of India, Taiwan, and China by bringing industry knowhow and market connections to their home countries
  • There are large, well-educated OSL communities living in the US, UK, Canada, and Australia that have the industry knowhow to assist in export-led growth in Sri Lanka

OSL can have the biggest impact on diversifying exports if they return to start firms in new export industries rather than working with firms while based overseas

  • OSL can play a useful role connecting the existent Sri Lankan IT export sector to overseas markets, but they cannot start firms in new export industries from abroad
  • If OSL return to start firms they can “seed” a new export industry that grows organically through the diffusion of knowhow
  • The pharmaceutical sector is an example of an industry with high potential to be “seeded” by returning OSL entrepreneurs

Preliminary policy recommendations focus on removing barriers and catalyzing latent motivations to facilitate OSL return entrepreneurship:

  • The Department for Immigration and Emigration should continue to ease border processes for OSL through dual citizenship and the OSL lifetime resident visa
  • The Board of Investment should orient part of its “one-stop-shop” to dealing specifically with OSL issues
  • The Ministry of Foreign Affairs should utilize its diplomatic network to engage potential OSL entrepreneurs to catalyze latent motivations to return

*This is an edited version of a Policy Analysis written in fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Master in Public Administration in International Development, John F. Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University

srilanka_export_diversification_thesis.pdf
Fool’s Gold: On the Impact of Venezuelan Devaluations in Multinational Stock Prices
Bahar, D., Molina, C.A. & Santos, M.A., 2018. Fool’s Gold: On the Impact of Venezuelan Devaluations in Multinational Stock Prices. Economia LACEA , 19 (1) , pp. 93-128. Publisher's VersionAbstract
This paper documents negative cumulative abnormal returns (CARs) to five exchange rate devaluations in Venezuela within the context of stiff exchange controls and large black-market premiums, using daily stock prices for 110 multinational corporations with Venezuelan subsidiaries. The results suggest evidence of statistically and economically significant negative CARs of up to 2.07 percent over the ten-day event window. We find consistent results using synthetic controls to causally infer the effect of each devaluation on the stock prices of global firms active in the country at the time of the event. Our results are at odds with the predictions of the efficient market hypothesis stating that predictable devaluations should not affect the stock prices of large multinational companies on the day of the event, and even less so when they happen in small countries. We interpret these results as a suggestive indication of market inefficiencies in the process of asset pricing.
bahar-molina-santos-2018.pdf
Hausmann, R., Ganguli, I. & Viarengo, M., 2018. Career dynamics and gender gaps among employees in the microfinance sector. Publisher's VersionAbstract

While microfinance institutions (MFIs) are increasingly important as employers in the developing world, there is little micro-level evidence on gender differences among MFI employees and MFIs’ relation to economic development.

We use a unique panel dataset of employees from Latin America’s largest MFI to show that gender gaps favouring men for promotion exist primarily in the sales division, while there is a significant gender wage gap in the administrative division. Among loan officers in the sales division, the gender gap in promotion and wages reverses.

Finally, female employees tend to work with clients with better loan terms and a history of loans with the institution.

Career Dynamics and Gender Gaps among Employees in the Microfinance Sector
Hausmann, R., Ganguli, I. & Viarengo, M., 2018. Career Dynamics and Gender Gaps among Employees in the Microfinance Sector. In S. Anderson, L. Beaman, & J. - P. Platteau, ed. Towards Gender Equity and Development. Oxford University Press. Publisher's Version
Nedelkoska, L. & Quintini, G., 2018. Automation, Skills Use and Training. Publisher's VersionAbstract

This study focuses on the risk of automation and its interaction with training and the use of skills at work. Building on the expert assessment carried out by Carl Frey and Michael Osborne in 2013, the paper estimates the risk of automation for individual jobs based on the Survey of Adult Skills (PIAAC). The analysis improves on other international estimates of the individual risk of automation by using a more disaggregated occupational classification and identifying the same automation bottlenecks emerging from the experts’ discussion. Hence, it more closely aligns to the initial assessment of the potential automation deriving from the development of Machine Learning. Furthermore, this study investigates the same methodology using national data from Germany and United Kingdom, providing insights into the robustness of the results.

The risk of automation is estimated for the 32 OECD countries that have participated in the Survey of Adult Skills (PIAAC) so far. Beyond the share of jobs likely to be significantly disrupted by automation of production and services, the accent is put on characteristics of these jobs and the characteristics of the workers who hold them. The risk is also assessed against the use of ICT at work and the role of training in helping workers transit to new career opportunities.

Barrios, D., et al., 2018. Tabasco: Diagnóstico de Crecimiento.Abstract

Since 2003, the GDP per capita of Tabasco has consistently figured among the 4 largest in the country. However, this level of economic activity has not translated into an equally favorable performance in other social welfare metrics. According to CONEVAL, the Tabasco poverty rate in 2016 was 50.9%, seven percentage points higher than the national rate (43.6%). On the other hand, the average monthly income of the workers of the state is in the 40th percentile of all the states.

This discrepancy can be explained because the mining activity, despite accumulating only 3% of jobs, represents more than 50% of the state's GDP. If we only consider non-oil GDP, we have that the GDP per capita of the state has tended to be located around the country's median, and for 2016 it was in the 30th percentile nationwide.

tabasco_diagnosticocrecimiento_cidrfwp106.pdf
Barrios, D., et al., 2018. Tabasco: Reporte de Complejidad Ecónomica.Abstract

Este estudio busca identificar las capacidades productivas de Tabasco a partir de un análisis de la composición de sus exportaciones y su empleo basándose en la perspectiva de la complejidad económica. Asimismo, busca identificar productos potenciales que requieran una base de conocimientos productivos similar a la que ya tiene Tabasco y que le permita mejorar su complejidad económica actual y prospectiva.

Para tales efectos, primero se explora la evolución en el tiempo del valor de las exportaciones de Tabasco y la composición de las mismas, así como de los principales productos de exportación. En sentido, se tiene que las exportaciones de Tabasco están determinadas por el sector petrolero. Los envíos de petróleo representan alrededor del 97% de las exportaciones estatales y explican más del 90% del aumento de las exportaciones de la última década.

tabasco_complejidadeconomica_cidrfwp107.pdf

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